Safety in Numbers

The Ravens recorded two hard-earned draws at home in their last two games, taking two points from a possible six against big-spending opposition. It means Bromley now have nine points from nine league games this season. But would averaging one point per game be good enough to secure another season in the Football League?

If we look at the last five full seasons, the highest total required was in 2020/21, when Southend Utd went down with 45 points; a return that would have kept them up in any other campaign in recent history. I think that rather sums up Southend’s luck! The lowest total came a year later, when Oldham Athletic finished second from bottom with only 38 points (0.83 points per game). 

It’s fair to say that a total in the late-forties will see you safe in League Two, but is that all Bromley should be aiming for?

Andy Woodman was bullish in pre-season that his side would surprise the league and were aiming to get as close to the play-offs as possible. That may still happen, it’s a long season, but I think fans can see that Bromley are on a learning curve at this level of football. Mistakes are being punished without mercy.

In view of that, was Andy wrong to trumpet his ambition, or will Bromley come good once they’ve learned the ropes and cut out the errors?

Perhaps League Two was always likely to pose a bigger challenge than we could anticipate. If you look back at Bromley’s FA Cup first round clashes over the last 50 years, they have never beaten Football League opposition. 

In that sense, Bromley’s opening-day win over Harrogate was more monumental than it seemed. The same can be said for the win over AFC Wimbledon, which represented a first home win over Football League opposition at Hayes Lane (friendlies and county cups aside).

Of course, Bromley aren’t a non-league side anymore, and going toe-to-toe with well-supported and well-funded Football League clubs is the new norm. It won’t always be pretty, but they’ve already shown they can hold their own.

But can Bromley go from surviving to thriving this season? Do they really need to?

There’s no harm in Andy Woodman pushing his players to finish as high up the table as possible in 24/25, but in Bromley’s debut season in the Football League, survival seems like the real prize.

If they continue to average 1 point per game, Bromley will finish on 46 points; a total that would have kept any team up in the last five full League Two seasons. That said, in 16/17 and 17/18, Hartlepool United and Barnet were both relegated on 46 points. 

So, should we call it ‘Project 47 Points’ or should Bromley aim higher?

What’s your take?

Personally, I think we need to hold on to our hats as it’s going to be a bumpy ride. But we can do this!

FOR THE STAT FANS:

Points total required for safety in League Two since 2018/19: 

2023/24 – 43 

2022/23 – 44 

2021/22 – 39 

2020/21 – 46 

2019/20 – N/A (Season ended in March due to Covid) 

2018/19 – 42 

Average points total required since 2018/19: 43

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